Spiders Elite

Recently, I wrote about the impact of the count on hitting results for youth baseball players. Let’s take a fresh look at that data but framed for pitching strategy.

The Data

You’ll recall that I collected two data sets:

1. American League from 2015-17 (MLB)
2. Spiders Elite 14u and opponents in 2018 (17 games)

The goal was to get a sense of the success rate of batters whose plate appearance ended in a particular count to find out if certain counts were more advantageous than others to the hitters.

I used the American League only to avoid the outlier of pitchers. I used three years of data to give me a big sample size for most meaningful results.

The Spiders have only played 17 games so far, so sample size is an issue. That’s why I included our opponents’ results as well. After considering adding the 13u season, I quickly realized that those results are for a completely different game at 80/54 and skew the numbers.

While the results in the two data sets would likely have their own unique quirks, the hope was to find some common trends that we can learn from — and there certainly were.

First, the data from the American League during the 2015-17 seasons…

And now the data for the 14u Spiders and their opponents for the first 17 games of this season…

Even though the Spiders data consists of nearly 1,000 plate appearances, it creates sample size issues when broken down into parts — particularly for situations that happened fewer than 50 times (at bats that ended on the next pitch in 3-0, 2-0, and 2-1 counts).

Following are the highlights of what we learned from these two sets of data:

1. The first pitch strike was a huge advantage for the hitter in both cases, assuming that it was put into play.

2. The worst situations for hitters are any count with two strikes.

3. Even when removing strikes from the equation for MLB hitters, the two-strike counts still resulted in the worst results. This shows that hitters are getting worse swings during those counts.

4. The most advantageous counts for all hitters tend to be 3-0, 3-1, 2-0, 2-1, 1-0, and 0-0.

What it Means for Hitters

All of this means that hitters should be aggressive on strikes early in the count. Allowing a good pitch go by will put them into a count that makes a positive outcome less likely.

It also means not to be overly aggressive. Taking pitches out of the zone puts the hitter into a more advantageous position.

What it Means for Pitchers

In a vacuum, this data suggests the following…

1. First pitch strikes are important.

2. Getting ahead and staying ahead makes success for the pitcher more likely.

3. Reaching two strikes, one way or another, is most likely to lead to a positive result.

4. Imbalanced counts in favor of the batter are least likely to lead to positive results.

Of course, there’s one issue with this: While it’s important to get ahead in the count, the hitter should (in theory) also be hunting that first pitch strike.

As a result, we shouldn’t necessarily approach all teams and hitters the same. Let’s take a closer look at some common scenarios…

Strategy: Weak-Hitting Teams

If you’re facing a weak-hitting team, you’re playing into their hands if you don’t come after them. They desperately want to reach base any way they can, and that may often be via the walk.

Get ahead. Throw strikes. Throw fewer offspeed pitches. Nibble less. Until they prove that they can hurt you, make them hit the ball.

Strategy: Aggressive Hitting Teams

The weak-hitting team is often the most selective. However, aggressiveness does not always lead to positive results. As a pitcher, you can take advantage of this.

You still need to get ahead, but you can get ahead in multiple ways. Since the hitter on aggressive teams is more likely to swing, you can get creative with offspeed pitches and fastballs that aren’t in the heart of the plate early in the count.

Strategy: Top Hitting Teams

The top hitting teams are smart at the plate. They understand the impact of the count on what they are likely to see. They are selectively aggressive. Top hitting teams can punish strikes. They are strong top-to-bottom.

As a result, you can be more careful with how you approach such a team, particularly if you don’t have a shut-down ace. The Spiders used this modified strategy for one of the strongest hitting teams in the state this season, and it resulted in allowing one run in seven innings.

Be unpredictable. Keep the ball in safe spots of the zone. Offspeed pitches down. Fastballs alternated on the hands or down and on the outside half.

Getting ahead is nice, but in this case you want to get ahead on your terms. A few walks are okay because they are better than extra base hits.

Strategy: Imbalanced Lineups

The vast majority of youth teams have imbalanced lineups — meaning that there is a large difference between the top/middle of the lineup and the bottom. As a result, you can treat hitters differently based on the spot in the lineup.

Ideally, that’s not the case for your team. So far, the Spiders are a very balanced offense. That doesn’t mean we all mash the ball, but it means that there is virtually no difference between our strongest and weakest hitters. In fact, I’ve yet to assemble a set lineup and regularly randomize it as a result.

Assuming you’re facing an imbalanced lineup, you can be far more aggressive with the bottom of the lineup. Get ahead with fastballs. Stay ahead with fastballs. Get creative with pitches out of the zone only when you’re way ahead.

Depending on the strength of the top of the lineup, you may take the “top hitting teams” approach with them. That said, feel free to be aggressive with the singles hitters, forcing them to get on base with a hit. It’s the doubles hitters that you need to be more careful with.

Strategy: Strong Defense

The greatest strength of the 14u Spiders at this point in the season — by far — is our defense. We have flexibility and coverage at all positions.

We aren’t perfect, of course. They’re still kids. They make mistakes. But they make fewer mistakes than most at this level.

It’s important that we play into this strength. We want the other team to hit the ball. Walks are a terrible result for us. They eliminate our greatest strength.

For our team, we should rarely make exceptions to wanting to get ahead of the hitter. Even for the middle of the lineup or above average hitting teams, we have the defense to get outs at a high rate.

With a strong defense, make the hitters earn their way on. Be ultra aggressive with your pitching until the other team proves they need to be respected at the plate.

Caveat: It’s Easier Said Than Done

This is all theory, of course. It’s strategy based on stats. In most cases, it’s very important for the pitcher to throw strikes and get ahead.

But these are kids, after all. Telling them to “Just throw strikes!” doesn’t work. At this stage in the season, it’s actually been one of the areas of needed improvement for the Spiders.

The main thing is that your players understand the importance of getting ahead in the count. It’s a huge advantage to them if they can accomplish it. One of the primary goals for any pitcher should be to throw first-pitch strikes.

Execution? That’s always another story.

Your Turn

How does your team approach pitching strategy? Anything you’d add or any exceptions that you’d make?

Let me know in the comments below!

When it comes to hitting at the youth level, we often talk about a general approach or strategy, like being selectively aggressive. But I want to provide something more substantive. Today, let’s look at statistical evidence that shows the advantages and disadvantages of hitting in certain counts.

We tell our young hitters to be aggressive on strikes on the first pitch and when they are ahead in the count. We tell them to let the bad pitches go by, but to take advantage of the opportunities to hit the good ones. But do they know why?

Hitting Theory

In its basic form, hitting is simple: Swing at strikes, don’t swing at balls.

Of course, it’s not always that simple. Different speeds can be used to deceive hitters, enticing them to swing at pitches out of the zone or mistime their swing. When the pitcher is most effective, the good pitch isn’t always easy to identify.

As a result, there are ways for hitters to maximize their odds of success. There are some counts and situations where a pitcher is more likely to throw a strike. There are also counts and situations where a pitcher is more likely to throw a fastball, the pitch most hitters can handle.

The key is to be in these counts so that a hitter is ready to take advantage of the situations. A hitter also should want to avoid being in two-strike counts because it is the least predictable situation — and one where the hitter has the least amount of control and may need to swing at something they don’t like just to stay alive.

So, the theory goes, we want to be aggressive on pitches that are most likely to be fastballs for strikes. This would include any count where the hitter is ahead, but particularly 3-0 and 2-0. The pitcher needs to throw a strike to avoid a walk.

But it may also include the first pitch. Why? Because it’s so important to start ahead in the count. Get ahead, and the pitcher has more options. Fall behind, and he’s forced to come in with a predictable fastball strike.

Note on Age and Level

Of course, this applies most to older ages and higher levels, where offspeed pitches are an important part of the game. If you never have to be concerned about the surprise of an offspeed pitch, it’s one less factor to complicate your at bat.

That said, it’s always a challenge to be in a two-strike count, regardless of the level. The batter is forced to expand his zone and protect the plate, particularly when having to guess what an inexperienced umpire may call for a strike.

Statistical Evidence: Major League

We have a hitting theory, or a general strategy or approach to an at bat and why. But what do the stats say? Are some counts more advantageous than others?

The first place I wanted to look for answers was Major League Baseball. While results from the pros won’t always apply to youth baseball, I know that I can get a large sample size of results that will actually mean something. That, of course, can be more difficult at the youth level.

Thanks to Baseball-Reference.com, I was able to collect league-wide splits based on the pitching count for an entire season. I decided to focus only on the American League, to eliminate the outlier of pitchers hitting. And I also decided to take three years of data (2015 – 2017) — simply because I could.

The table above presents the results when a given plate appearance ends with a given count. That could mean a swing (hit, out, strikeout) or no swing (walk, strikeout, or hit by pitch).

Take a look at the table above. Here are a few points based on that data…

1. Hitters who took a first-pitch strike instead of swinging took a 21-point hit to their batting average (from .345 to .321).

2. Once a hitter takes that first pitch strike, he won’t return to the same odds of success again until getting to a 2-1 count.

3. Somewhat surprisingly, batting averages don’t change much from a 0-0 pitch (.345) to 1-0 (.344) or 2-0 (.350), counts that would be more advantageous to the hitter. But averages skyrocket 57 points when going from 2-0 to 3-0, and even a 3-1 count is the second most advantageous (.363).

4. Any count with two strikes is a major advantage to the pitcher. Averages disappear to .157 for 0-2, .166 for 1-2, .183 for 2-2, and even .211 for 3-2.

5. Not surprisingly, any count with three balls also had the highest on base percentages since the next ball would result in a walk. Plate appearances that end immediately after a 3-0 count have a startling .944 on base percentage.

Overall, the main learning here is that it’s important to avoid a two-strike count. Being overly selective early in the count will contribute to eventually reaching this point.

Removing Strikeouts

Since I had plenty of data to work with, I also wanted to see how two-strike results looked without strikeouts. My thought was that I want to get a sense of the quality of hit when put into play.

My theory: Having two strikes is bad not only because a strikeout becomes possible, but because a hitter is more likely to hit the ball poorly when protecting the plate or expanding the zone to avoid that strikeout.

The result of removing strikeouts from two-strike counts? Indeed, these averages remain lower. The lowest averages by count, even when removing strikeouts, are all with two strikes:

• 0-2: .312
• 1-2: .313
• 2-2: .322
• 3-2: .334

We can theorize that averages come up a bit for 2-2 and 3-2 counts because the pitcher becomes slightly more predictable, particularly in a full count.

Statistical Evidence: Youth Baseball

This is all great, but does it apply to youth baseball? We can assume there is certainly some carryover. But professional pitchers make lives more difficult for professional hitters; professional hitters are better equipped to adjust to anything a professional pitcher throws.

What about kids?

The Spiders’ season is still young (we’re 17 games in), but I decided to take a look at how the count impacts results in our games. To help with sample size, I included both our results and our opponents’.

Even though I’m using close to 1,000 total plate appearances, sample size is certainly an issue. While I have sample sizes close to or greater than 100 plate appearances for 0-0 (183), 1-0 (111), 2-2 (94), and 3-2 (140), I had fewer than 50 plate appearances for 2-0 (35), 3-0 (40) and 2-1 (38).

In other words, take these results with a grain of salt. They’ll mean more as I’m able to add to this throughout the year. But for now, a few thoughts…

1. The batter who takes a first-pitch strike loses 43 points on his batting average moving from 0-0 (.385) to 0-1 (.342).

2. The batter who takes a first-pitch ball gains 55 points on his batting average when moving from 0-0 (.385) to 1-0 (.440).

3. The most advantageous counts are 3-0 (.667), 3-1 (.500), 1-0 (.440), 2-0 (.424), 1-1 (.397), and 0-0 (.385). Again, consider the small sample size issue for 3-0 and 3-1.

4. The worst counts for the hitters are again the two-strike counts.

5. Unlike the results for MLB players, a 1-1 count (.397) was just as good as, if not better than, 0-0 (.385). However, keep in mind that a batter in a 1-1 count is one pitch from slipping to .289 with another strike.

Since sample size was already an issue, removing strikeouts, in this case, wouldn’t provide any meaningful results. This is again something I can revisit after the season.

What This All Means to Hitting

Let me do my best to summarize how this impacts hitting…

1. Be aggressive with a purpose on strikes in predictable counts. This doesn’t mean you should be overly aggressive on 0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, and 3-1, swinging at pitches out of the zone. And simply swinging at the strikes isn’t enough here either.

A foul will put the batter into a disadvantageous count. A swing and miss will also hurt him. It’s important that the hitter be aggressive, but on strikes that they can hit and with the purpose of putting the ball in play.

2. Focus on fastballs in predictable counts. There’s a reason hitters are more successful in 0-0 counts than 3-2 counts, even when removing strikeouts for Major League players. The first pitch is more predictable than on 3-2.

Look for a fastball, don’t react to it. If you don’t get a fastball in those counts, let it go.

3. Taking strikes is still okay. Understand that the point of this isn’t to say that you should swing at strikes at all costs while in advantageous counts. Maybe the pitcher throws an offspeed pitch at an unpredictable time. Let it go. Maybe he paints the corner and throws a strike that is difficult to hit. Let it go.

Even if your odds drop as a result of letting a strike go, swinging at these pitches would not likely lead to positive results.

4. The first pitch may be the most important pitch. It’s probably a fastball. The pitcher wants to get ahead. It may end up being the best pitch you get in the at bat. Sit on a fastball in the zone. If you get it, hit it. Just as importantly, let the bad one go by.

Many coaches advise taking the first pitch, no matter what. I was one of them when coaching the 8-10 age groups. But with time, I’m realizing this is likely not the best approach at higher levels.

As a result, it may be difficult to break habits of kids who aren’t comfortable swinging at that first pitch. Help them understand the potential advantage of swinging at that pitch. Also, help them understand what they may be letting go by.

The key is to not only be aggressive in these counts but to be ready and have the intent of hitting the ball hard in play.

What About Pitchers?

This post has focused on hitters and how the count impacts their results. But this can be just as easily turned around to focus on the pitchers.

As a pitcher, we know that…

1. It’s important to get ahead. That first pitch is a big swing in results from 0-1 to 1-0.

2. Get to two strikes. Once you do, the hitter needs to protect and will take worse swings to stay alive. You are in control as long as you have two strikes.

3. Avoid three-ball counts. Well, duh, right? Walks are bad. But whenever you’re in that 3-0 or 3-1 count, in particular, the hitter has a very big advantage over you. It’s a tough place to be.

4. Pitch to contact. All of this can be accomplished if your primary goal is to pitch to contact rather than hope that the batter swings at a bad pitch. By pitching to contact early in the count, you can get more creative deep in counts when you can try to get the batter to hit your pitch.

We could write an entirely separate post on the topic of pitching related to counts. We just might have to do that!

You show up to practice. Get your glove out of your bag and join your teammates on the field.

“Wanna throw?” you ask. A nod. You grab a ball.

Throw. Catch. Throw. Catch. Overthrow… Walk out to the ball. Walk back. Throw. Catch.

Cracking jokes. Throwing — or attempting — curveballs. Off of your heels.

Throw. Catch. Throw. Miss…

Why do you practice?

Go to your positions, the coach says. He grabs a fungo and starts knocking grounders to his infielders.

The first third baseman fields it… Throws on a hop to first.

Second third baseman boots it. Another ball hit. Fields it… Throws to first.

First shortstop boots it. Another hit ball. Boots it. Another hit ball. Fields it… Throws to first.

Second shortstop fields it… Throws wide of first.

Now you’re up. Flat footed. Slow, high-hopper coming your way. Fielded cleanly, easy throw to first.

Wait for another 230 seconds until your next ball.

What is your purpose?

Get a drink. Grab a helmet and a bat. Wait in line…

Third in line. Ping. Second in line. Ping. First in line. Ping. Your turn…

Swing away… Foul. Same swing as last weekend… popup. Same swing you’ve had all season… Same result. Ten swings, nothing changes.

Why are we even doing this?

Far too many kids see practice as a necessary evil. Far too many coaches don’t embrace this for what it should be: Time wisely spent refining skills.

I realize that all coaches think they are using practice time wisely. They have good intentions. But most are wasting that time. Kids aren’t getting better.

It’s not just the coaches. The kids have the wrong frame of mind and expectations. The facilities often don’t allow for efficient drills that allow everyone to move at once. And coaches — volunteers who rarely played beyond high school and aren’t paid — are ill-equipped.

This is really nobody’s fault. I grew up on practices like these. I spent many of my coaching days instructing practices like these. But it’s time to take a look in the mirror and make a change.

Why Do You Practice?

The answer to this question may seem obvious, but I encourage you to ask it. The reality may be that you practice because it is expected.

Like most coaches, you should practice to get better. So that your players are prepared. And it’s a good plan.

But how successful are your practices at achieving this? Do your players warm up with a purpose? Are they focused? Are they applying hitting and fielding drills that attempt to fix their specific flaws? Are they standing around, waiting, while others go first? Are they going through the motions?

A good practice doesn’t last a specific amount of time. Don’t feel like you have to work these kids to the bone. The truth is that most three-hour practices are two hours of standing around.

A good practice has purpose. Everything players do has the purpose of reinforcing good habits and fixing bad ones.

Set the Tone Early

Remind your players that they are at practice for a reason. They are there to get better. You are there to help them succeed.

You may think you don’t need to say this, but you do. These kids are conditioned by years of going through the motions at pointless practices.

Before practice even starts, establish a reason for being there. An upcoming tournament. A hypothetical championship game after a long weekend.

Put them in a good frame of mind. What they do today will help them be better players tomorrow. They may not notice it. But every time they reinforce good mechanics and productive actions, they are teaching their bodies to be better baseball players.

Use their competitiveness as their fire. Remind them that other teams are working harder than them. Remind them that their teammates are playing for the same positions and opportunities that you are. Now is the time to push yourself forward.

Every time it seems as though the boys are going through the motions, ask a simple question: Why are you here?

Warm-ups Are More than Warming Up

I’ve seen it too many times. Most teams don’t know how to warm up, so kids have the wrong expectations for the purpose of warm-ups in the first place.

When your team throws to warm up, what do they look like? Are they throwing in unison, at the same distance? Are they practicing good form and mechanics? Are they focused?

Or are they all doing their own thing? Throwing off of their back foot or sidearm? Joking and chasing baseballs?

Most teams warm up poorly. But the entire purpose of warm-ups is more than simply getting your arm warm. It’s to remind your body of proper throwing motions, habits and mechanics.

I’ve found that a good way to reinforce productive warm-ups is to ask my team about how the opposing team is warming up before a game. How do they look to you? Do they look organized? Do they look focused? Is this a team that intimidates you?

You can win the mental game before the actual game begins. It starts with warm-ups that actually have a purpose.

Drills vs. Reps

As coaches, we think of practice as a time to get reps. But the reality is that this is the time to fix flaws and reinforce proper process and mechanics.

Simple reps won’t help if they don’t fix a problem. Only productive reps do. This seems obvious, but think about how most teams practice.

Hitting practice is a bunch of kids getting to hit. That’s it.

Fielding practice is a bunch of kids in the field getting to field. That’s it.

Have your players practice hitting drills that teach their bodies to be in the proper hitting position. Give them throwing drills that train their bodies to use good throwing mechanics. Provide fielding drills that remind them of efficient fielding motions.

If you can, customize those drills to suit each player’s flaws and areas of improvement.

Stop Showing and Telling

For years, I was a “shower and teller.”

When you hit, stand like this. Keep your hands here. Use your hips like this. Lead with your hands. Follow through like this.

This method DOES NOT WORK.

Kids have been doing the same thing for years. Even if they’re young, they’ve been doing the same thing long enough that simply TELLING them to do something different isn’t going to fix it.

They can’t see themselves as they hit, throw, or field. And their bodies don’t understand how or why they should do it the way you’re saying.

That’s the purpose of drills. Without these players knowing it, a drill — when properly executed — teaches a player’s body exactly how it needs to move.

Next time you hear a coach yelling about how a player’s hands are here or hips are there, kindly ask them to try a more productive approach.

Keep Kids Moving

I understand that this can be easier said than done. Sometimes, you’re sharing a field or have access to a facility with limited space.

The goal, though, should be to minimize standing around. Eliminate it altogether, if you can. Every moment spent standing around is a moment wasted.

Fielding drills can involve a partner. Hitting drills can involve fieding. Pitching drills can involve a catcher.

Avoid lines at all costs.

Imitate Live Action

Our indoor practices involve mostly drills. Repetitive actions to train the body to move the ways that we want.

That said, you can’t use only drills and then expect to perform well in a game. You need to imitate live game action.

Add stress and competition. Give them something to fight for. Bring out their competitive fire. Do your best to imitate the pressure they will face in an actual game.

You can do this with simple hitting and fielding competitions. You can also imitate live action by splitting your team in half and running a scrimmage.

That may sound crazy, but it actually makes for a fun game. The Spiders only have 11 players. That may mean putting a coach or two in the field. But it’s important to practice live pitching, catching, hitting and fielding.

Your pitchers need to face live batters. Your hitters need to face live pitchers (other than coaches). Your catchers need to face live runners. And your fielders need to field live hitting.

Mental Game

The Spiders have a playbook. You may have seen a version of it. All of our players have and study this playbook.

But we also set aside classroom-style “chalk talk” sessions to discuss situations. What would you do, as a pitcher, in this case? Why? What are you thinking as a hitter here? Where would you go as a fielder if this happens?

It’s more than memorizing responsibilities. It’s understanding why you should do the things you need to do.

Most teams don’t have these classroom sessions, but I truly believe that this is where kids become cerebral baseball players.

More to Come

This is an overview of how most practices happen now and how I believe a prodictive practice happens. In the coming days, I plan to provide examples of some of the drills that we use in our practices.

How does your team practice? Let me know in the comments below!